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COMPLEX TIME: Adaptation, Aging, & Arrow of Time

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Contact: Caitlin Lorraine McShea, Program Manager, cmcshea@santafe.edu

Irreversible Processes in Ecological Evolution/Emergent structure and dynamics in stochastic, open, competitive communities

From Complex Time

January 29, 2019
11:15 am - 12:15 pm

Presenter

Annette Ostling (Univ. Michigan)

Abstract

Here I describe recent theoretical work by my lab looking at the emergent patterning in models where niche differentiation acts in concert with drift and immigration, as well as empirical work looking for that patterning. The results of our study of “stochastic niche communities” provides further generalization of the recent theoretical developments suggesting that niche differentiation may actually lead to clusters of species similar in traits, in contrast with traditional expectations of even spacing or overdispersion. These traditional expectations are derived from models ignoring stochasticity and immigration as well as other factors. I will review both classical and more recent theoretical developments along the way. We also find niche differentiation plays a more complex role in species persistence in stochastic niche communities than classically expected, enhancing persistence of a select few species, and lessening the persistence of others. We have also demonstrated the occurrence of this pattern of clusters across an array of niche mechanisms, and groundtruthed metrics for its detection in field data. Finally, we have applied our metrics to trait and abundance data for tree species in the 50 ha plot on Barro Colorado Island, and find significant clusters in four traits linked to niche axes. I will discuss all of these developments and also highlight connections to the question of irreversibility in the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of competing species.

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