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COMPLEX TIME: Adaptation, Aging, & Arrow of Time

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Population and the Environment: Analytical Demography and Applied Population Ethics/Modeling complex populations - dynamics of age-structured populations

From Complex Time

October 15, 2018
3:00 pm - 4:00 pm


Simon Levin (Princeton)


This lecture will begin from the classical roots of life tables and age structured populations, develop the general principle of stable age distribution, and close with a brief discussion of population momentum when parameters shift (as due to the implementation or relaxation of the one-child rule in China). There will brief mention of density dependence of birth rates, a concept of primary relevance for non-human population.

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Post-meeting Reflection

Simon Levin (Princeton) Link to the source page

The interrelated topics of population growth and resource depletion are central to sustainability, and ideal topics for SFI

Potential for greater integration of conceptual foundations and applications is high; these are prototypical complex adaptive systems, and problems of the Commons are at the core as regards resource use, disease management, etc.

Would like to see even more-post-meeting integration of these topics.

I may work more on migration.

Reference Material

Ellner and Rees is overview of age-structured models

Espenshade papers introduce momentum

Arrow and Levin introduce notion of intergenerational transfer of resources

Keyfitz and Keyfitz introduce continuous-time models

Title Author name Source name Year Citation count From Scopus. Refreshed every 5 days. Page views Related file
The McKendrick partial differential equation and its uses in epidemiology and population study B. L. Keyfitz, N. Keyfitz Mathematical and Computer Modelling 1997 74 15
Population momentum across the demographic transition Laura Blue, Thomas J. Espenshade Population and Development Review 2011 24 5
On Nonstable and Stable Population Momentum Thomas J. Espenshade, Analia S. Olgiati, Simon A. Levin Demography 2011 4 10
Age-structured and stage-structured population dynamics 0 11
Intergenerational resource transfers with random offspring numbers 0 3